Rising power plant energy cost
RZR
| Posted in Energy Efficiency and Durability on
See attached….SDG$E(San Diego, CA) raised the minimum tier from 12 cents to 15. We don’t buy in and didn’t run the AC much this year in baking heat, probably what most are doing, that and getting off the grid. This is sign of those still on the grid having to pay for the ones that are off. In KS, cost went down from 10 cents last year, to 9 probably in fear of going bankrupt like Cali. Lets see what they do with gas.
How about where you live, going up or down?
GBA Detail Library
A collection of one thousand construction details organized by climate and house part
Search and download construction details
Replies
Terry,
I disagree with your statement (if I am reading you correctly) that "what most are doing" is "getting off the grid." The number of Americans who live off the grid is extremely tiny, and there are no signs yet that many grid-connected homeowners are cutting the cord. (The growth in off-grid homes occurs in remote rural areas; many of these new off-grid homes are vacation homes for the wealthy.)
I have no idea why you think that "those still on the grid" are "having to pay for the ones that are off." In what way do homeowners who pay electric bills subsidize the tiny number of Americans who live off the grid?
In some, but not all, areas of North America, electric rates are rising. But in most cases, electricity costs in North America are much lower than they are in Europe.
Perhaps your're right Martin, when I drive around CA, NM, AZ, then all the states between there and KS, north, east, south, of KS which I do often, the most PV I see by far is SW. And with the new solar farms popping up there it appears many are off grid. Perhaps it is small compared to the ones still on and I made some bad assumptions, I dunno. Last year the SD home show had around 70% PV, anywhere else 10%.
Terry,
Just because you see a house with PV, doesn't mean that the house is off-grid.
Here's a rule of thumb: if you can see a house from the road, it almost undoubtedly isn't off-grid.
If you are driving on a road that has utility poles, the homes aren't off-grid.
Now, if you often go hiking in Alaska, you'll probably bump into a few off-grid homes.
Terry,
What I'm trying to explain to you is that the homes you see with PV on the roof are almost all grid-connected.
lol, ok, next trip Alaska...seems like all this PV in the SW must be reducing power plant profits. Supply and demand but I'm no PV expert just a casual observer. One thing I do know is I'm getting tired of the rate hikes that apparently seem to be in line with the timing of the solar boom. :(
Martin has it right- the PV you see on rooftops in San Diego is (almost) all grid-tied. Stuff you see PV on a shack 40 miles down some fire-road it might be off-grid, but not necessarily.
Some of the rate hikes in CA are due to the failed San Onofre nuke upgrades, a piece of broken hardware that is now guaranteed to never be coming back, but still being paid for. Your utility was a minority stakeholder on the hook for a good chunk of that, but at least now there's seems to be a defined upper bound to that cost:
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/mar/27/san-onofre-settlement-reached/
Assigning the cost increases to the PV boom has it upside down- if anything PV in San Diego at current penetrations is helping keep rates down. In the face of that loss of large baseload generation they now have to buy more power from other utilities and merchant power generators. PV takes a big chunk of the most-expensive peak-load power, and those houses draw most of their power during off-peak periods. That reduces the amount spot-market purchasing the utility has to do to keep the lights on. The utility is clearly concerned about a future threat from distributed PV as it is growing exponentially, but for now it's at-WORST a wash to have that PV on their grid.
When the total amount of PV on the grid is supplying well into a double-digit fraction of the peak load it will begin to be a cost to the general ratepayer, but there is a way to go yet, even in California. They are hitting that point in parts of Australia though, which has something like 3-4x the amount of PV installed per capita as California. Parts of Hawaii have reached that threshold too.
The high end of the tiered rate blocks in San Dieoe are expensive enough to make offsetting that with grid-tied PV something of a no-brainer. The step from 18 cents/kwh for tier-2 to 35 cents/kwh for tier-3 is a fairly dauntingly steep step. That in itself is a strong incentive to invest in at least some PV if you intend to run a heat pump or air conditioner.
In my back yard the large utilities are not allowed to own their own generation assets, but contract with merchant power generators for the energy portion of the bill, which they are allowed to pass on without mark-up. They are compensated for both the build-out & maintenance of grid assets, as well as for meeting targets on power use reduction/conservation programs.
About half the power in New England is generated at combined cycle natural gas facilities. After a natural-gas pipeline bottleneck resulted in spot-market pricing north of $100/MMBTU for the power generators last winter during the polar vortex cold snap many of those generators took a real financial beating, even firing up #2 oil peakers to cover their contracted portion of the load in some instances, when gas became unavailable at any price on some of the more constricted pathways. As a result, going into this winter rates generators are charging utilities for the power have jumped from an average of 8 cents/kwh to about 16 cents/kwh in at least one instance. The utility asked for and received regulatory approval for passing-on that steep uptick in cost. The distribution portion for the local residential ratepayers had been about 7-8 centskwh, so for then next couple of weeks they're paying about 16 cents/kwh, but beginning in November that will jump to 24 cents/kwh.
Since ratepayers in MA are allowed to purchased power on their own, it's possible to beat the standard utility rate. Even 100% wind power on a 3 year contract from one broker comes in at about 12 cents/kwh, well under the standard mix that will offered through that utility starting in November. (I may or may not buy from them- I'm still shopping. :-) )
Got it, thanks Dana for sharing your research. Lets hope we don't see a winter like last year. We have a meeting today with our Builder's Association to discuss PV at the sub-division level. My vision is to work with a developer to put it in common areas and let special taxes paid by an Association fund it.
Sounds like PV is a no brainer in my garages for charging electric cars. Whats your take on natural compressed natural gas(NCG)? We presented natural and energy efficent building codes for adoption at our last code board meeting recently, the fire marshal was there asking to adopt NCG for fleet trucks. Looks like I can get one installed for around $6,000 grid tied: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/04/us-naturalgas-home-refueling-insight-idUSBRE9930D120131004 I put this on the agenda to discuss today too.
CNG is a lot cheaper and cleaner burning than gasoline or diesel, but I'm dubious that it has a chance to drive a paradigm shift in the personal automotive industry. Like other fossil fuels, in automotive applications suffers a severe efficiency penalty due to the ~25% efficiency of Rankine-cycle engines.
Even with conversion losses and some use of the grid between a PV array and the car-charger, an electric car is going to do better than 60% net efficiency from PV panel to where the rubber meets the road. The cost vector on natural gas really has only one way to go (up), given that the only way they can sell natural gas at current prices is due to the high prices of the oil, propane and other hydrocarbon liquids coming out of the same fracked wells. The cost vector on PV and other renewables is still strongly downward.
An analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux (a bit European investment bank) did the math on it comparing PV & wind in electric cars to oil at at various cost points for the various sources. Even using projected $2.2/watt pricing for PV for 2035 (higher than large arrays can be installed for THIS year) by 2035, that puts about 2x the amount of energy applied to the wheels than $125/bbl oil. At a buck a watt or less (the likely cost of large arrays in 2035) it would also beat $10/MMBTU natural gas (roughly current cost of natural gas in most of the world) used in a Rankine cycle engine car. See chart 81:
http://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/KC-ESG_Toil%20for%20Oil-1.pdf
(Read the whole thing- it's a good bedtime story! :-) )
If natural gas fuel cells became cheap enough relative to lithium ion car batteries there could be some cost-advantage to going with compressed natural gas in a fuel cell car even when PV gets super-cheap, but the learning curve on fuel cell technology has been nowhere near as favorable as the PV + battery combination.
BTW: Natural gas burned in a combined cycle powerplant that is then used to charge an electric car has a somewhat higher net source fuel-to-application efficiency than burning that natural gas in an internal combustion engine.
After 20 plus yrs building houses we wrestle with rising electric costs more than ever. I've decided to build a new house for myself and find myself in my customer's shoes. What kind of fuel to use for heating? Until the past couple of years many houses we built were heated cheaply by electric baseboard, Zone 4/5 btw. It makes my head spin. Oil prices are dropping. Electric is rising. Solar has zero support locally. NG is largely unavailable. Propane going up.. What is a builder and/or a person building a new home to do??
Heat pump technology has improved a LOT over the past 20 years, particularly ductless heat pumps (mini-split, multi-split.)
If you keep the ducts & air handler completely inside of conditioned space (not in an attic above the insulation) a variable speed ducted heat pump like the Carrier Greenspeed (there are others in this class too) will use well under half the amount of power in a climate zone 4/5 location that electric baseboards would.
A ductless heat pump solution would use about a third of the power used by baseboards, if you use the better versions. (HSPF rating greater than 10.)
Oil prices are dropping this year but that is a temporary thing- driven by the slowdown of the world economy. At this morning's $82/bbl a large fraction of the US oil coming out of tight shale would be losing money on every barrel. At $70/bbl ALL tight shale oil loses money, and their bankers know it, which is why they are paying junk-bond type rates for all of that development capital. The wells already drilled can still make money at $82/bbl or less, but tight shale wells crap out in about 3 years- if they're not constantly drilling new wells, production in those fields, US production levels will crash.
When China was still on a high growth path the pumping rates on traditional type oil plays was maxed out. The new production from tight shale was only a rational bet for the oil majors when it looked like $100/bbl oil was here to stay. Barring a sustained worldwide recession, it probably really is here to stay, despite the current mini-glut of crude. But this is only a temporary dip in demand. Europe's economy has slipped a bit, reducing their oil use, and China's growth rate has faltered to mid-single digits, with lower than expected demand growth. Even if Europe stays in the doldrums for the next three years, just 5% annual growth in China over that time frame will bring demand up to the max pumping rates from OPEC again, and the price will have to rise to the point that tight oil is profitable again.
Some analysts seem to believe Saudi Arabia is cynically using this lull in demand to pump enough oil and price it low enough specifically to put the Canadian oil sand and US shale operations into dire financial straits, so that they have weaker competitors to deal with once demand rebounds. (I'm not convinced that's the case, but I'm not totally convinced that it isn't. YMMV.)
Propane prices track crude oil prices pretty closely, and you pay per-MMBTU premium for it over heating oil in most markets. Half the propane in the US is a by-product of crude oil refining, the rest is from natural gas processing. Much of the uptick oil & propane production is from the same tight shale formations where the natural gas glut is coming from- if oil prices fall to the point that tight oil becomes less profitable causing them to reduce the drilling rates, propane and natural gas will become more expensive.
Zero local support for solar won't mean much in 5-10 years. By then it won't NEED much in the way policy support, at the rate solar prices are falling.
Utility scale solar is now becoming competitive with new combined cycle gas power plants on a lifecycle cost of energy basis, and power purchase agreement (PPA) contracts are reflecting that. Just this week in Georgia it was revealed that the average PPA between larger PV operators and Georgia Power came in at about 6.5 cents/kwh. Those are fixed rate 20-25 year contracts, with NO price volatility, and comparable to CC-gas generator's fuel + operations + capitalization costs.
Midwestern wind power has been beating CC gas for a few years now, and is still getting cheaper year on year. Every year the capacity factors on new stuff goes up, and the costs come down, making once-marginal wind areas more cost competitive. These too are often financed on the basis of decades long contracts.
Bottom line: There is a limit to how expensive electricity can get before it starts to get cheaper again. That isn't the case for natural gas or oil, now that nearly all of the "easy oil" in the world is owned by national oil companies and kleptocrats, whereas the major oil companies have only the harder more expensive plays to go after. When worldwide demand exceeds the pumping rate of the already developed easy-oil plays, the price will spike again. It could be in three months or in three years, but it's unlikely to be longer than that, given the rapid depletion rates of shale oil plays. Over the 20-30 year lifecycle of heating equipment electricity prices will have powerful deflationary forces in action, primarily due to widely distributed cheap PV.
In Australia electricity prices are high, but the policy support for it under the Abbot adminstration is being eroded. Net metering only pays the wholesale spot market rate to exported power in excess of what is being used, and there is enough PV there that the wholesale price is quite LOW on sunny days in some areas. Some people have cobbled up clever ways of avoiding that gouge by never exporting power to the grid, using any excess to heat water in electric hot water heaters. But SolarCity is planning to offer integrated battery packs to Ausralian PV customers beginning in 2015 (as they have been in California for awhile now.). With Australian type of net metering and sky-high retail rates batteries are already financially viable. As battery costs continue to fall, it will be viable in most of the US by 2030.
Thanks Dana.
As I'm sure you know there are places where heat pumps are avoided like Ebola. I am in one of those areas. As for myself, I know they are a far cry from where they were in the 80's. Even ten years ago I wouldn't install them in homes of people sixty years old or older because , they were never "warm".
I've questioned the shale/sand oil production myself. In our state there is a fair amount of activity as far as shale oil goes. Some have done well by selling the rights to their property though. I would love to see them get to the shale on some of these tracts. They would need a drilling rig attached to a helicopter on some of these slopes or outfit a goat with a rig.
I have to admit with the solar, I should become more educated. When I said , no local support. I was referring to installation and/or service support.
Terry,
"How about where you live, going up or down?"
I live in the Chicago area. The recent history on electrical costs are: Year 2000 - 2009 = .094 to .121 $/kwh. Year 2010 - 2013 = .101 to .110 $/kwh. Year 2014 so far = $.131/kwh.
I should point out that our billing changed in 2009 to a real time pricing system (see below).
COMPARING:
SDG@E tier system seems to put everyone on a variable rate program that depends on how much the individual cumulatively uses during the billing period with the tiers breaking at 15, 18, 35, and 37c/kwh if I've understood it all properly. This would not penalize the individual from heavy usage during peak utility demand but would penalize increasing usage over the billing period. I've read there's an extension cord from Hawaii supplying kwh to San Diego using standby diesel generators and this might explain the pricy kilowatts.
COMED: Our bills are divided into Supply, Delivery, Taxes and Fees. There are several line items, each a source of billing inflation. Supply (43% of a bill) includes electricity supply, transmission, capacity charge, and misc. Delivery (47%) includes customer charge, meter charge, and distribution facilities charge. Taxes and Fees (10%). Customers may select a fixed charge for electricity supply or volunteer for the real time pricing program. Historically, the RRTP electricity supply charge has been about $.03/kwh. In 2014 we've had a supply charge exceeding $.04/kwh. The RRTP program penalizes the individual especially hard for usage during utility peak demand periods. However, one can consume a substantial amount of kwh overnight at rates in the $.02 - .03/kwh supply charge range.
So, going up here. I sense there's been a change in the wholesale market recently as we are getting high pricing alerts in all weather conditions whereas the alerts used to come only in the summer. Some participants have dropped out of RRTP because the savings opportunity has evaporated.
"Didn't run the a/c much this year, in baking heat ... "
I was stationed in San Diego in the Navy. The weather was eerily constant. In the summer when it should have warmed up, it didn't because it became overcast.
There's something you can do if you're so inclined. It is possible to keep the home quite comfortable (say 76F) and the a/c will only run overnight a few times to catch up. You shouldn't have humidity problems in San Diego but you do have a long sunny season. If you live in a "typical" well sealed and insulated house, the key is managing solar gain, esp. that portion penetrating your windows. Some options: solar screens, solar grates, something called Infiltrate, awnings, films, low shgc windows, or shutters. I use seasonal solar grates mounted outside the windows. The rooms remain bright. Our summer electricity usage is only nominally higher compared to mild weather months. I wouldn't even consider RRTP without the technical edge that solar gain management provides.
We're moving out of SD place has too high cost of living and it's not worth it, not even close. Weather is nice but gets hot and more so lately, they can have everything else.
KS code meeting was interesting...I heard a new definition of the word " green" from our B&S assistant director that attended International 2018 code review, it has to do with zoning? My, my, that word has sooooo many confused! Everywhere you go some company is promoting the word, it has to be the biggest cliche' of 21 century. He describes the process as being highly influenced by manufactures, is International, that's just wrong and no wonder why they are such a mess. It will be interesting to see what they they do with PV. They (here) are also trying to figure out how an energy code would benefit them and are bringing in an "expert" company at a price to help, can't wait to attend this. I pointed them to statistics of deaths and health related issues of just one close by power plants, and a reduction in carbon foot print as the largest benefit, if you are an environmental conscience person anyway. Stands to reason to me anyway as we drop the power plant load from more efficient homes, the deadly small particles out the kiln smoke stacks should drop. From what I gather from the two meeting's I attended, these people would have no clue what Dana is talking about, I struggle with it and need to become more educated myself.
Dana, I'm beginning to wonder if you work at a power plant? I can't imagine you read this stuff for entertainment ;) I'm having a hard time dealing with this country, more less others. This 2020 vision you mention of PV domination is at the home level? You're referring to the power plants or solar farms, correct?
There is a huge lack of understanding I can see out here, which makes me believe KS is not the only ones in the dark. There are other restrictions at the home, building, level. Home restrictive covenants, some, don't like PV roofs. The roofs themselves restrict angle of incidence to the suns direct beam and beg for a single axis at least, not good for some roofs. To me, designing a roof pitch to satisfy PV makes no sense, there are better uses like living space, snow and wind loads, etc...In high winds wood is not a good mounting provision, dome, radial, hip roofs make sense structurally. The steel ground pod is another option that makes more sense here, if you have the room and clearance, about as likely as south facing building's. So, at the home level I'm seeing huge growth in the next six, not even 10 years. As long as existing builder's are making a profit they won't change a thing, unless forced to by code.
The president is looking around for a developer we can get together with for PV at the sub-division development level that will not have the architectural constraints. We have building land here, unlike CA, etc....Putting architectural control in the hands of a new or existing Association made up of bored PTA attending house wife's and retirees is not going to install alot of high energy efficient architect including PV's they do not understand.
The creation of the cookie cutter sub-divisons did some good and bad, and now stands in the way of innovation and energy efficent homes. One thing we agreed on is energy efficient homes do not fit in existing sub-division restriction or declarations and by-laws that are not designed for them, taking that path can be very costly. Besides getting those restrictive, dangerous, ugly PVs off my roof and batter storage out of my utility rooms, I have further visions to implement community rain water catchment and grey water recycling, alternate sewers, well water at the "new day and age" sub level. That's the only way I see this happening anyway....Sounded good to folks that know less than I do, ha! Slim chance I find a developer, perhaps one that will allow me to build in a small corner and prove our designs. Sounds like there is a plat committee that we need to get approval from, once again the local cable company, power plant, etc gets some inputs to a design that will only confuse them and raise lots of questions I'm sure. If grid tied the special city taxes are still incurred on top of community-sub level utilities that take you off the grids, or your loads down. So I'm not sure how this all works yet but I know CA does it somehow, I see the PVs in common area ground steel mounts everywhere. As if that is not enough, according to Martin's later Space Heating Blog I'm trying to read, looks like DHW and plug loads have higher impact then heating-cooling. Not sure if that puts solar thermal back in the pic or not...I'll keep reading.
GNC - They are looking at, seems like some have grandfather the system in without having the proper certification and identification on parts, I imagine to some standard. Adopting code takes alot of investigation and training inspectors. I think I'll just provided provisions for now.
I've asked them to adopt some new natural materials I designed to replace spray foams for air sealing, another headache, since around here you can design what you want for residential but it gets inspected to code if it exist. If the inspector is not familiar with it I have to hire a third party or provide data it is safe (fire, etc).
"Dana, I'm beginning to wonder if you work at a power plant?"
I don't work at a power plant (but I have a relative who is an engineer for a utility in WA who I go skiing with almost every July. I can talk-the-talk credibly enough that utility related stuff carries a good fraction of the conversation on the long glacier/snowfield ascents.) My end of electrical engineering is pretty far removed from power plant or grid operations, but I at least have a clue as to how it all works, and how the business models are structured, etc.
"This 2020 vision you mention of PV domination is at the home level? You're referring to the power plants or solar farms, correct?"
I'm talking HOME LEVEL in the 2020 time frame, power plants and solar farms will come sooner. The levelized cost of PV by 2020 at the residential small-scale sub-10kw rooftop/yard level will be cheaper power than the residential retail rates in most of the US. The cost wholesale power from PV at the utility & solar farm scale is already cost-competitive with NEW combined cycle gas plants and NEW nukes in the sunnier southern US right now, including the more humid (= more clouds, less insolation) southeast:
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-cheaply-can-georgia-power-buy-solar-for-6.5-cents
Even in relatively dim-sky low-electricity cost MN a utility-scale solar recently beat gas plant proposal based on the economics:
http://www.midwestenergynews.com/2014/03/27/in-bid-against-gas-minnesota-regulators-say-solar-can-proceed/
I DO read up on this stuff for entertainment (and self-education), it's especially informative looking at Australian & European blogs covering the bumps in the road on the transition to widely distributed renewables. Australia is a partuclarly interesting case of competing visions, with WAY overbuilt transmission grids and a coal industry second to none, with something like 200-300% overcapacity on coal-fired power generation, few of which are operating at a worthwhile capacity factor. The result is sky-high electric rates to pay for both the grid and to keep even the grungiest antique power plants operating, which is putting them at extreme risk for grid-defection by those with the financial means to buy batteries + PV. Just the GRID cost portion of the bill has a higher per-kwh cost than the lifecycle cost of PV:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/why-rooftop-solar-makes-networks-such-a-hard-sell-31826
A variation on that movie is playing in Hawaii right now, and will be playing in several US markets within 10 years. New York is actively re-writing the regulations specifically to AVOID overpriced electricity, without putting the utilities so far back on their heels that they fail financially, as has happened in Germany. Those bumps in the road have not quelled interest in "energiewende" in Germany though, but some of the rules have recently been adjusted to be able to get there without crushing the utility biz entirely. The fact that whole towns in Germany have already defected from the grid (collectively) is a big warning flare.
Dana, sorry for the late response I was off-roading all weekend. Skying in WA in July? Last I lived in Seattle that is the only time the sun finally showed for three summer months and melted snow. I had you pegged as a sparky....I been one at the installation level, design of wire harnesses and the installation of them but I'm not a circuit designer. I have also done structures. I been around both to know how each think. The sparky's think it's no big deal to put holes in structure, and the structures think it's no big deal to bend or re-route cables out of the way.
I read the links you provided in your last post none of which addressed what I posted in my last post which leaves me to believe you may be confusing our roof top 'home level" future growth projections with other countries.
I'm not sure how other countries are structured demographically, governmental, or financially and I don't really care. In your research have you found any articles that address some of my stated concerns below as related to America,
1. Home Owner Association, ACCs usually control the installation of roof top panels in newer sub-divisions across America, what is the approval rate? This can be a major growth bottle neck to this 2020 visions.
2. New developments require someone to pay for utility installations. As far as I know, most developers role this cost into the homes or charge a "special" tax that pays out in 10 years for example. Adding the cost of PV to this cost would be an unlikely sell. What is the business case for this?
3. As a structures engineer I would approve an installation on a roof with steel reenforcements in wind zones = or > 90 mph since 300-500 psi tensile of wood will not take the fatigue, other structural issues can arise from the weight and bending of the panels, snow loads, seismic, that were never accounted for in the initial design of existing homes. Have these types of concerns been addressed and the additional cost been factored into the installation cost and pay back period? Have you seen an average installation cost that notes these types of addition cost based on a comprehensive structural analysis of existing homes and building's?
4. There is only a small percentage of south facing existing roof tops at the optimum angle of incidence to optimize ROI, and most existing homes do not have the ground space. How are these projected massive roof top installation bottle necks being addressed, suppose to get past these geometrical constraints?
5. Considering all the above bottle necks, stepping up insulation and air sealing or as jurisdictions without an energy code adopt one, notable 2015, 2018, 2020, and low load energy efficient homes bring down grid tied energy cost, combined with power plant PV cost reductions as you noted, how does this factor into PV roof top boom and the pay back period (when grid energy cost is already low and getting cheaper) and this vision?
Until I see an article that at least discuss some of the grass roots hurdles of this "2020 vision" I'll assume it is out of touch with US reality, and variable local constraints.
When PV hits $1.50-$2/watt (contractors costs) in a new build, when financed as part of a 30 year mortgage, the combined debt-service + utility costs go down, not up, even if places with 9 cent electricity.
The market it still too young in the US to have a lot of data on HOA acceptance for new developments. There are cities in CA with developments where rooftop PV was part of the deal, but I don't have a lot of details on that. (Some of those are "old" enough that PV was probably at least 2x more what it costs today.)
Adding PV lowers the peak loads seen on the grid infrastructure for the new development, but electric vehicle chargers would potentially add to peak loads (at least in theory), but in exactly those sort of neighborhoods in Austin TX that has not proven to be the case.
http://www.pecanstreet.org/2014/05/new-tech-city-podcast-pecan-street-feature/
In CA they are considering compensating for orienting the arrays somewhat westward for the express purpose of reducing peak load on the grid beyond the development, despite the hit in total kwh produced:
http://www.pecanstreet.org/2014/10/how-california-is-incentivizing-solar-to-beat-the-peak/
"Until I see an article that at least discuss some of the grass roots hurdles of this "2020 vision" I'll assume it is out of touch with US reality, and variable local constraints."
You can either go ahead and make that assumption, or go out and write some of that history yourself (and publish it in an article. :-) )
In the meantime keep an eye on NY over the next 5 years- their rewriting of the regulatory rule book should pave the runway for Utility Grid Rev. 2.0.
(edited to add)
The HOA restriction issues surrounding solar are nothing new- but there are now guidebooks on how to deal with it:
http://thesolarfoundation.org/sites/thesolarfoundation.org/files/HOA%20Guide_Final.pdf
In Minnesota legislation passed early this year explicitly prevents HOAs from being able to deny rooftop solar for individual homeowners, avoiding the issues surrounding it that have cropped up in other states (including California):
http://www.midwestenergynews.com/2014/04/22/minnesota-bill-would-prevent-homeowners-associations-from-banning-solar/
That brings the count of states with "right to solar" legislation up to 23 (unless there have been even more passed in the last year.):
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Homeowner-Associations-The-Right-to-Solar-and-Solar-Soft-Costs
The states that haven't take action on this are primarily states that currently have very little rooftop solar installation activity going on. But as we've seen that can (and probably will) change.
The states where those issues have been addressed in specific legislation are home to something like 2/3 of the US population. It has become a lot more mainstream and IN tough with US reality than folks in the low solar activity states may be aware of. This is a booming business in my area, not exactly a fringe boutique kind of thing only for the wealthy, thanks to the $0 down lease deals and low-interest financing options.
Do a web search on the terms:
solar wind loading code
You get only about 8-9 million hits- this road is well traveled too. No news here. Search instead on:
solar wind loading standards
That's only about 16 million hits.
If your local building codes haven't yet drafted standards for this stuff, they will (or should) soon.
Hawaii (the US state with the greatest penetration of rooftop solar systems) took a pretty good beating from hurricane Iselle earlier this year (and another near miss over the weekend). The grid had some issues, but there was no widespread loss of PV systems (and those with local storage were the bright spots while they were mopping up.) There were widespread power outages, but not widespread damage to PV systems.
http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/blog/2014/08/big-island-rooftop-solar-systems-fared-well-in.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+bizj_pacific+%28Pacific+Business+News+of+Honolulu%29
Methinks the wind loading is a solved-problem, long since forseen & provided for.
D- When PV hits $1.50-$2/watt (contractors costs) in a new build, when financed as part of a 30 year mortgage, the combined debt-service + utility costs go down, not up, even if places with 9 cent electricity.
T- I believe what you are referring to is an Energy Efficient Mortgage (EEM), a product that banks are using to qualify home buyer’s that takes into account lower utility bills on a monthly cash flow basis. The buyer still has to have the debt-to- income ratio, and the home still has to have enough equity or a down-PMI will be required. If the house or the buyer does not met certain criteria up front, the PV won’t be amortized. PV produces more risk to the lender than a power plant if they get the house back, I don’t see this being approved often.
D- There are cities in CA with developments where rooftop PV was part of the deal, but I don't have a lot of details on that. (Some of those are "old" enough that PV was probably at least 2x more what it costs today.)
T- Yep, you can see larger than roof tops on steel pods on the ground off most highways, I wish I could see the business plan that put them there.
I could not get New Tech video to work…..
D- You can either go ahead and make that assumption, or go out and write some of that history yourself (and publish it in an article. :-))
T- The real issues I have is deciding on what path to take, and it’s more than PV. Do I take the time to find an existing developer that will change their restrictive covenants or hope they approve energy efficient architecture including PV’s on roof or ground pods, or, do I take the CA path and find a developer willing to incorporate PV at that level? You pointed to some megawatt systems that I am sure are being offered at a discount price vs rooftop, volume sales produces discounts usually. Perhaps just providing provisions for both roof-ground in homes and purchasing what budget can afford is the answer.
D- http://www.pecanstreet.org/2014/10/how-california-is-incentivizing-solar-to-beat-the-peak/
According to the Community Associations Institute, associations represent over 25 million housing units. Of these, approximately 13 million (52%) are structures most suitable for residential solar installations.
T- Now the government is going to step into every home and push PV. Will they also take legal responsibility? Well the interesting part will be since most ACC’s don’t have the $ to fight those ugly roof top PV’s, look forward to a class action suits. I wonder what lobbyist are pushing these mandates, could it be the PV industry? I can wait to see what they do with codes that makes no sense. Step aside lumber and concrete, here comes PV.
D- In Minnesota legislation passed early this year explicitly prevents HOAs from being able to deny rooftop solar for individual homeowners, avoiding the issues surrounding it that have cropped up in other states (including California):
T- Classic example of what I am talking about. Wojcik made the mistake of not getting ACC approval, which could be from ACC people with no clue about PV valuations, and now has massive legal fees. Some states, depending on corporate law, may not be able to take the power out of the Association which is a state privately owned corporate entity, corporate law depending on structure(smllc-mmllc, inc, c, s, etc) this can be very costly and complex law, and if those mandates can be proven to degrade property values (despite some third party “studies” that do not warrantee an increase in value from PV, nor account for all the legal liabilities, potential for personal injury, maintenance, etc.). It will be interesting to see future cases of one falling off a roof, killing someone, and the state being sued for banning HOAs from prohibiting them. From the looks of some DIY or non-qualified installers out here on the net, the chances of that are high.
D- The states that haven't take action on this are primarily states that currently have very little rooftop solar installation activity going on. But as we've seen that can (and probably will) change.
T- Yep, into one of the biggest legal battles of private rights this country has seen in a while. Coming to your local and national news channels soon.
D- Solar wind loading code You get only about 8-9 million hits- this road is well traveled too. No news here. Search instead on: solar wind loading standards…That's only about 16 million hits.
T- I know enough about structures to not waste my time, codes are written by manufactures, codes do not take the liability when they fail and kill. Each home has to be looked at on an individual basis, adding to cost. Sure, we’ll follow code, sign a state or “Obama” release of liability, have your inspectors come out for free and hold the installer legally harmless. Now that’s “code” we can live with.
D- If your local building codes haven't yet drafted standards for this stuff, they will (or should) soon.
T- Here is ours, I’d never follow it, and we’ll do much better just as the vast majority of the 2009 imposed…we’ll write our own 2020 code, just as we are far surpassing the rest of structural code easily! I wonder what PV Company talked them into this joke code.
Building and Electrical Permits are required for Photovoltaic (PV) systems. In most cases, PV systems must undergo a Building and Electrical plan review. Building Plan Reviews are not required for installations that meet all the following criteria:
1. Structure is a single-family or two-family dwelling.
2. Total panel weight (including frame) is not greater than 5 lbs. per square foot.
3. Maximum concentrated load at each point of braced support does not exceed 40 lbs.
4. Maximum height above roof surface does not exceed 18 inches
5. The component and cladding loads are designed to meet the latest adopted edition of the International Residential Code.
6. PV panels are installed on the rooftop.
7. Total inverter power does not exceed 4kw.
D- Hawaii (the US state with the greatest penetration of rooftop solar systems) took a pretty good beating from hurricane Iselle earlier this year (and another near miss over the weekend). The grid had some issues, but there was no widespread loss of PV systems (and those with local storage were the bright spots while they were mopping up.) There were widespread power outages, but not widespread damage to PV systems.
http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/blog/2014/08/big-island-rooftop-solar..
.
Methinks the wind loading is a solved-problem, long since forseen & provided for.
T- We’d need to see code and do a study of the installations. Probably a situation like we have in some jurisdictions here like Moore, OK and Joplin, MO, others, that have decided after many deaths and injuries, billions in destructions, to adopt a higher minimum wind load of 150 mph vs 90 IRC_IBC which in my opinion is still far too low. Just like a flat roof that is one of the worse designs for pressure loads, a pressure dome or radial will distribute much better making PV manufacturing and installation more difficult and costly. Same with PV once wind or snow accumulates. I already mentioned hail over time, insurance will pay the R$R of the panels with new roofs which is very common in the Midwest from annual wind and hail if the home owner pays for the endorsement, that needs to be factored in PV cost installations. Attaching to a steel angle tied into the side of rafters putting fasteners in bearing-compression is much better than attaching to wood in tension. That 40lb concentrated load max in our code could increase to 120, but they don’t want to add to the cost and complexity, and again it depends on the conditions of the rafters. R$R will elongate the holes, that is not addressed in our code. There is just no proving static and dynamic stresses wrong here with general statements that do not look at details. Even a sparky can understand that, ;) I’d imagine if we ever do get to the level of installations as CA or Hawaii, these codes would change for the worse producing higher installation cost, longer pay backs, making it more difficult to finance in an EEM.
Begs the question: How will manufactures cut cost in a competitive market? What will happen to quality? My guess in molded plastics that can be mass produced, not a bad thing since it should lighten them up and some plastics are as strong as steel like Kevlar. Look at the new commercial wide bodies like the Boeing Dreamliner, Carbon Reinforced Plastics, or and don’t forget to take note of the rear pressure dome bulkhead. That’s what we need to build homes out of :)
Bottom line: This 2020 home level vision has a long way to go. It will be interesting to see if it pans out in every state. Some states will make more sense than others. We can’t just assume that because manufacturing cost is coming down there are no other cost or hurdles, like installation and legal that will rise. As America adopts more energy codes and power plants adopt more PV saving building load cost, as high cost PV installations codes are adopted, will PV still make sense despite all its unknowns (financing, HOA adoption, insurance adoption, soft cost, etc.).
If you look past the cost per watt, I don’t see this huge growth at the home level state wide. It makes more sense at the power plant level in mass production, or at the community sub-division level. The sub-division level has it’s sets of challenged as I mentioned above. I like to see a business case for that if you run into one, one I can use as a guide to present to a developer.
I personally think there are better places for them than roof tops, I can think of better architecture that is more aesthetically pleasing to the eye not a soar, safer mounting on steel grids, and I can see them taking home values down knowing how much people value curb appeal. They would at least be better out of site from the curb which puts more limitations on the orientation of lots. Now we need the home not only facing south but on a certain side of the street. Perhaps it’s time we lose the HOA club house and pool, parks, walkways, and put in a PV arrays. Most HOAs like to meet at each other homes anyway, wine and dine the BOD with HOA funds. Only reason I was President of the last one I lived in :)
Speaking of skiing, almost time to head to the rockies, vail, brekenridge, hmmm, decisions, decisions.... One more off road trip first.
OK, now we're repeating ourselves. :-)
In the US the "soft costs" are more than half the cost of installing residential PV. The all-in cost for utility-scale PV is about $1.80/watt. The all-in cost for residential installations in first-world countries that have streamlined the permitting/inspection and have well trained crews & methods comes in at abotu $2/watt, and that is using comparable hardware & labor rates all around. There is no question that this is going to happen in parts of the US, and soon. (Ground zero is Austin TX, but many other places aren't far behind.)
Soft costs are where the savings are primarily going to come from for residiential PV, followed by:
*panel cost (there is a clear path to 30cent/watt panels)
*pre-racking & pre-wiring of systems (trading $50/hr rooftop labor for $15/hr factory labor and adding quality control)
*inverters (year on year price declines)
*racking systems- not by cheaping out on materials or going with plastic (a silly straw-man argument with no basis in what's actually happening in the industry) but by simplifying the assembly & mounting steps.
Given that there are 150 gigawatts of PV currently installed in the world, there already is a large data set on mechanical failures and weather related issues. There will of course be updated codes if/when/where problems arise, but this isn't some major obstacle to getting a lot of cheap residential PV installed in 2020.
The financial model that has worked for the boomlets in CA & NJ has been $0-down lease options with power purchase agreements at lower-than-utility rates. These do not have the same underwriting constraints of low-interest loan deals. The revenue streams of those lease deals are now handled (in most cases) by "yieldco" partners to the solar companies, packaging & selling those revenue streams into traditional financial markets. SolarCity just started selling PV-yield bonds directly to small time investors this month, paying ~4%. (If you have $1K to invest, you can buy solar bonds directly.)