HFO -> HFC-23
I’m not qualified to comment on this but I thought the community might have someone with a basis for a more informed opinion:
https://naturalrefrigerants.com/study-links-hfos-to-formation-of-super-greenhouse-gas-hfc-23/
TL;DR: some common HFOs may degrade in the environment into an HFC with GWP 14,000+ on a 10-year time horizon.
I truly hope this doesn’t turn out to be true because I’m just now seeing the shift to HFO as a blowing agent for spray foams where I live in PA and I can only imagine how long it would take to shift to a suitable replacement.
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Wow, that is depressing news! It sounds like it's not a definitive cause of the unexpected increase in atmospheric HFCs but a likely culprit.